Utah and BYU are locks but New Mexico and San Diego State are hanging around, and UNLV is officially eliminated after getting run out of the gym.
(22-9) RPI 33
In my opinion they are a virtual lock, however with the Big XII, Pac-10, and Atlantic-10 having potential surprise teams taking a bid away from bubble teams. The problem with San Diego State is that they have only 2-5 against top 50 RPI teams which came against Utah earlier in the year, and BYU last night. They have no bad losses, which is a team ranked 100 or lower in the RPI index.
The MWC is an ultra competitive conference and with the Pac-10 and SEC down this year helps SDSU. Obviously a win today gets them an auto bid, and I would put their chances at 60 percent to make the tournament with a loss.
(21-11) RPI 65
All New Mexico really needed to do was to beat Wyoming in the quarterfinals. The team went 12-4 in league play along with sharing the league title with BYU and Utah who are in. They went 3-5 against top 50 RPI, but they have bad losses as well by having 3 sub 101 RPI loses and while getting 10 wins against sub 150 RPI.
This evening will be interesting if either gets in becuase the A-10 is now getting three teams in, USC winning the Pac-10, and the SEC may get an extra team in with LSU not making the conference final.