Previewing 2009 Air Force Opponents: Minnesota Golden Gophers

OK so getting two or three previews was not possible last week, just blame Jake Heaps for making his announcement early for not getting the ever so important 2009 non-conference team previews.

Game number two for Air Force is Minnesota Golden Gophers out of the Big 10.  For a preview on this game from a Golden Gophers perspective go check out the Daily Gopher over at SB Nation a place you may see the MWC Connection soon (hint…hint).

A quick recap from last year for Minnesota’s season:  the Gophers went 4-0 in their cupcake non-conference schedule, and then 7-1 before losing their last five games.  Also, the only team they beat with a .500 record or above was the 6-6 Bowling Green out of the MAC, and then 7-6 Florida Atlantic out of the Sun Belt.

The one great thing going for the Gophers is wide receiver Erick Decker who was a force with over 1,00o yards on the season, and Minnesota also returns their top runner and top quarterback.  The chart below represents the teams top returning skill position players.

Passing	COM%	YPG	TD	INT
Adam Weber	62.2	212.38	15	8
Rushing	Carries	Total Yards	Yards Per Carry	TD
DeLeon Eskridge	184	678	3.7	7
Adam Weber	127	233	1.8	4
Receiving	Receptions	Total Yards	Yards Per Catch	TD
Eric Decker	84	1074	12.8	7
Ben Kuznia	31	310	10.0	0
Brandon Green	20	298	14.9	1

Offensively the Gophers were a one man show with receiver Eric Decker, and after a few games the opposing teams tried to slow him down.  Minnesota’s offense averaged only 23.2 per game which was 83rd nationally and deffensively were only slightly better at 61st nationally while giving up 24.8.

2008 could have been a fluke with their non-conference schedule very weak schedule with the 75 rated according to the 2008 Sagarian ratings, and then looking at the all-knowing Phil Steele he has Minnesota’s 2009 schedule ranked 11th toughest based on the 2oo8 opponents win-loss record.

The Big 10 historically has been a running conference, and then pass when needed.  Minnesota seems to be doing the opposite, and they should since they have a big time receiver in Eric Decker who put up big numbers.

The Gophers will still try to sling the ball, but will move back to a more traditional pro-style offense from the spread they tried to run in 2008.  Minnesota brings in a new offensive coordinator in Jed  Fisch who most recently was coaching in the NFL for the past eight seasons.

The main importance for Minnesota to attempt to get their playmaker the ball is to first; develop a running game that gained only 103 per game and ranked 105th nationally.  Their passing game was 55th, but when they played good opponents they struggled to do anything with the ball, and their is evidence with the 55-0 beat down by the hands of Iowa.

The running game should be much improve with the return of Duane Bennett who is returning from knee surgery, and the addition of top junior college prospect Hayo Carpenter who will help ease the pressure of of Eric Decker.

They do return eight starters on offense and half of those come from the most under looked position by fans which is the line.  The 2009 Gophers return four starting offensive lineman, and typically when a team has experience on the line they will be a good team.

There is hope for this 2009 team to be better from 2008, but the win total may not reflect that with their tougher non-conference games agaisnt Syracuse, Air Force, California, and South Dakota State (well not the last one).

Defensively the Gophers were in the bottom quarter nationally on defense ranking 81st out of 120 in the nation, all while giving up 383 yards per game.  Their defense will have a tough time defending the Air Force run option, because this will be the only time Minnesota sees that offense and that they were at the bottom nationally on rush defense.

The defense does return seven players, but when a defense is not all that great does that really matter?  Minnesota could have success agaisnt the Falcons option attack with speed at linebacker and the secondary.

Assignments will be key, but if the Gophers second and third level defenders have as much speed or more then the Falcons that could limit the big time plays the option is known to producer.

The front line does need to replace their top pass rusher from last year – in Willie Van De Steeg – and bring the pressure to the quarterback, and the top replacement looks to be Cedric McKinley.

The rushing defense will be anchored by two very large men in Garrett and Eric Small and they will need to step up against the Air Force run attack and try to slow it down.

The defense did improve greatly from coach Tim Brewster’s tenure from year one where the team was dead last nationally up to 80th last year.  Again, that coule be attributed to the lackluster schedule early one, but one indicator that shows how good a defense is in the turnover margin.

Minnesota was plus twelve which translate to plus .92 per game and a national ranking of 16.  The offense plays a part in that numbers, but so does the defense in getting that to a positive number.

In this matchup specifically Air Force will need help in the secondary, because of the talent and speed that the Minnesota receivers posses.  Also, the Falcons will need to settle in on who will be their starting quarterback in either Tim Jefferson or Asher Clark.

Jefferson was a true freshman who put up good numbers last year, but is in academic limbo since the spring, and Asher Clark played running back last and is making the move to quarterback but suffered an injury in the spring.

That situation should be figured out by then, but this game really could go either way because Air Force is always fundamentally sound and keep most game close.

The week before both teams play inferior opponents – both who should win – with  Minnesota coming off a game agaisnt Syracuse and Air Force playing FCS punching bag Nicholls State.

One last not that should be mentioned, The Daily Gopher has this quote about the game:

“Air Force has this one circled on their calendar.”

While that may be true, since it is a BCS school on the road, but in reality if one were to get a truthful answer from someone at the Academy this game ranks sixth out of twelve.

Ranked ahead of this game would be both service academies and the TCU, BYU, and Utah.  The last three schools mentioned and Navy are going to be better then Minnesota and the Army game is for the Commander-in-Chief trophy.

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Week 15 College Football Blog Poll

Here is week 15 of the blog poll make sure to check out CBS Sports for the final ballot. More movement then one would think in the final regular season poll.

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Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oklahoma	1
2	Texas	1
3	Florida	—
4	Southern Cal	—
5	Utah	—
6	Texas Tech	1
7	Alabama	1
8	Boise State	—
9	Penn State	—
10	TCU	1
11	Ohio State	1
12	Oregon	2
13	Oklahoma State	1
14	Georgia Tech	1
15	Cincinnati	1
16	Brigham Young	1
17	Michigan State	1
18	Georgia	2
19	Northwestern	—
20	Virginia Tech	5
21	Pittsburgh	5
22	Mississippi	4
23	Ball State	10
24	Boston College	3
25	Buffalo	1

Dropped Out: Missouri (#22), Florida State (#23), Oregon State (#24).

How good would a college football playoff be?

Dan Wetzel over at Yahoo Sports outlines what a 16 team playoff would look like this year. I am a huge proponent of a playoff, partly because I like the MWC and that the post season would be awesome. The concept is not hard maybe cut the regular season to 11 games and leagues that have championship games are done by the last weekend in November or first weekend in December. Then play the first two rounds take two weeks off and have the semis on New Years Day and the title a week later.

The NCAA would need to take control of football since right now the BCS owns the post season for football. Make first round game home games and then use bowls for the round of 8 and beyond, which would be seven bowl locations. The rest of the bowls could be used for rewards for teams who do not make this playoffs.

Just look at the potential matchups, Texas Tech-Ohio State, Utah-TCU rematch, Tulsa high powered offense against Oklahoma, and that is just the first round.

I guess in the mean time we have to play for a Mythical National Champion, but we can dream?

 

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Michigan Interview with Maize N Brew

Check out this interview I held with Dave over at Maize n Brew about how the Utah and Michigan game will shape out.  Go check out his site after you read his responses.  This is an excellent read so check it out.

1. Do you buy the hype over Michigan’s players not “fitting the system”?

Offensively I don’t think there’s any question that several of Michigan’s players are not optimally suited to run rodriguez’ preferred offense. A 6’6″ statue with a cannon arm is not what Rodriguez generally prefers to run his offense. However, Steven Threet or Nick Sheridan or Justin Feagin all ran the Spread in high school, so each of them has some knowledge of what the system entails and their better suited to run whatever version of the Spread Rodriguez installs than anyone who’s taken the snaps at Michigan for the last decade. So while the signal caller may not be Rodriguez prototypical player, whomever he names the starter will be more than capable for running the offense. When you get to the skill positions (RB, WR, TE),
though you’d like to see more experience on the wings, Michigan is loaded with more talent and capability than Rodriguez has ever had, with the possible exception of Noel Devine.

The real issue is on the offensive line. All of these linemen, with the exceptions of Tackles Steve Schilling and Mark Ortmann, were traditional pro style linemen who floundered under the horrific tutelage of former line coach Andy Moeller. None of the linemen were ever required to work, run, sprint, or block the way Rodriguez’ system requires. Top that off with the antiquated conditioning system Michigan formerly employed which valued girth over strength and athleticism, well, you start to get the picture. Michigan’s biggest “fit the system” problem will come at the offensive line, simply because of the lack of depth and the fact that most of them have ever run an offense remotely similar to Rodriguez’.

On Defense? Stacked like pancakes on Sunday, son. The defense is fast, mean, and loaded with speed. New DC Scott Schafer, last seen guiding Stanford’s defense to an upset over top ranked USC, loves what he’s got. This is arguably the second best defense in the Big Ten behind Ohio State’s.

2 Who will Rich Rodriguez play at quarterback in week one, and will he
stick to just one or use a rotation?

According to the projected two-deeps and various media outlets, redshirt freshman Steven Threet will take the Michigan’s first snaps this season. Threet is a former consensus 4 star, Elite 11 quarterback. He initially committed to Georgia Tech and bolted after fall practice. The reasons were never clear but the consensus was a combination of home sickness and dissatisfaction with the Tech coaches. Threet is as tall as the statute of Liberty and reputed to be just about as mobile. Though he ran the spread in high school, Threet isn’t a threat to run. There are the occasional quotes from his high school coach indicating he’s faster than he looks, or that no one’s giving his athleticism any credit, but everything I’ve seen/read/heard says coffee table like mobility. I hope he proves me wrong.

Where Threet will make his money is in the passing game. He’s got a cannon for an arm and is reputed to throw as pretty a deep ball as you’ll find in college football. This isn’t to say his arm is as strong as Henne’s, or even now departed Ryan Mallett, but it’s pretty good. Threet has also garnered praise for his leadership qualities and seems to have the best grasp of the huddle and a smidge more poise than Sheridan.But nothing is wrapped up.

As surprising as it sounds, walk-on Nick Sheridan’s performance during fall practice has him neck and neck with Threet to start August 30th. This should be and is (somewhat) a cause for concern. Programs like Michigan aren’t supposed to have walk-ons at starting quarterback. However, there is some precedent for this. Brian Griese was a preferred walk on who didn’t earn a scholarship until his senior year.
Which is incidentally the year he led the Wolverines to a national title. While no one is suggesting that’s going to happen this year, it does offer at least a little bit of comfort. Inapplicable historical minutia aside, there are several reasons for optimism when it comes to Sheridan’s potential as a signal caller. First he was a fairly successful quarterback at Ann Arbor Saline high school before a knee injury derailed his senior season. Sheridan is the more athletic of the two quarterbacks and was used to running the spread in high school as well as tucking the ball under and running.

Next, though he doesn’t possess the arm strength that Threet has, Sheridan’s accuracy has improved dramatically with the extra reps he’s gotten with the first team this fall and he’s got enough arm strength to get the ball where it needs to be. Finally, Sheridan’s a smart kid and a coach’s son. Part of the reason Sheridan came to Michigan was at the request of Lloyd Carr for him to matriculate as a preferred walk on. Sheridan’s dad was a coach at Michigan at the time (or a former coach), so there’s some nepotistic rationale for the invitation but Carr wasn’t a guy who’d take a kid who get killed at the D-1 level. So, baseline, Carr felt Sheridan would be able to contribute in some way, whether running the scout team or as a sort of player/coach during drills. One thing that’s been praised over and over again is Sheridan’s grip of the basics and how coachable he is. The benefits of being a coach’s son become pretty apparent in those circumstances.

Regardless of who starts, Rodriguez has made clear you’re probably going to see both quarterbacks on the 30th.

3. How do you think the Michigan defense will do against Utah’s
spread? Especially since they struggled against Appalachian State and
Illinois, two teams that use a spread offense.

While it’s true the spread offense has been Michigan’s Achilles Heel the last ten years, most of that has to do with the coaching that left rather than any deficiency in talent. Michigan’s past teams were built
around defending a power running team or a standard, pro-style offense. Carr wasn’t a spread guy, so no matter how much practice time the team got out of it’s practice squad it wasn’t going to match up to
the Ohio State, USC, or Texas/Vince Young offenses. But if you’re talking about defending a standard spread offense, well, Michigan’s faired better than people perceive.

Michigan really hasn’t struggled with Illinois, despite the offense it runs. If you watch the last two year’s games, Michigan had a simple philosophy with Juice Williams. Make him throw. Stack the line and do
your best to knock him around. It worked. Regarding the loss to Appalachian State, it’s a two part answer. First, Armanti Edwards did his best Troy Smith imitation, and deserves full credit for being the
best player on the field that day and arguably the third best player to set foot on Michigan turf last year (Denis Dixon and Beanie Wells are 1 and 2). Second, and more damningly, Michigan’s defense was totally unprepared for the quality of team they were facing. It was an utter coaching failure on the part of Michigan’s defensive staff.  People can say what they want, but based on Michigan’s performance the
rest of the year the ASU game was more the result of a talented but lazy team taking a hungry and talented team too lightly.

It’s worth noting that in the second half ASU managed 6 points, when they put up 28 in the first. If Michigan played both halves like the second, I wouldn’t be writing this. But they didn’t, and deserved to lose. Bottom line, ASU is the less an example of Michigan’s difficulty with the spread than the team’s uncanny ability to lose games it shouldn’t over the last five years of Carr’s tenure.

The best example of difficulty that Michigan has with the Spread is Northwestern. Prior to his death, Gary Walker has Northwestern giving Michigan fits with his system which was largely derived from Rich
Rodriguez’ system. Multiple people in motion, quick slants, quarterback reads, the option, etc. All gave Michigan headaches because it was, in effect, a pure spread offense than Michigan had never been able to replicate in practice. Now, facing the Rodriguez’ spread every day in practice, and with the talent on defense this year I think the days that people perceive the “spread’s” pwnage of
Michigan’s defense are coming to a close.

But, as everyone knows, a special player makes the difference in that type of offense. Vince Young. Troy Smith. Look at what happened to Oregon when Denis Dixon went down. If Brian Johnson is healthy, then
he could be a difference maker. However, I haven’t seen enough of the guy to know just how good he can be. If he’s as good as people say, and as quick a runner as he’s made out to be when healthy, I think he’ll give our linebackers fits.

I think the QB makes the difference. I just don’t think the fact that Utah runs a spread offense matters this year, even though it might have in the past.

4.  Is Rich Rodriguez going to be stubborn and force ‘his offense’ on
this team or will he gradually mix it in and utilize the strengths of
the players he has?

Will he force a square peg into a round hole? No. He’s too good a coach for that. Rodriguez has a history of molding his offenses around his personnel. Certainly he has a system, but that system can be adapted a number of ways to take advantage of the talent he has. Look at his success with Tulane. Hell, he somehow managed to get Shaun King drafted! King had all the foot speed of a wicker swing set and he
still guided that team to a 12-0 season and a bowl win. Everything we’ve heard or seen from this Michigan team indicates he’s crafting his system around his players.

5. Who wins and why?

Michigan, based on their defense. Don’t get me wrong, I think Utah’s got ever possible chance to win this game, but my questions with Utah’s defense are greater than my concerns over Utah’s offense.

Utah’s primary returning starters on the D-Line are at the end positions, where Michigan’s best linemen are located. Utah’s returning interior line appears to be a little banged up or inexperienced, just
like its Michigan opposite. There just isn’t a clear advantage there, so a push, you move to Utah’s linebackers who, with the exception of Stevenson Sylvester, are unknowns. However, Michigan’s tailbacks are known quantities each of whom went over 100 yards against Big Ten opponents, and I think they win that battle. Michigan should be able to put up enough points to beat Utah, so the question becomes can the defense keep Utah off the board? I think they can.

The interior line of Terrance Taylor and Will Johnson maybe the best combo in the Big Ten. On the ends I’ve made no secret of how good I think Brandon Graham
(http://www.maizenbrew.com/2008/8/21/598489/15-michigan-football-playe)

and Tim Jamison
(http://www.maizenbrew.com/2008/8/15/594161/15-michigan-football-playe)
are going to be. I think, despite the size and experience returning on Utah’s line, Michigan will be able to get to Johnson. Part of that also has to do with the fact I don’t think Utah will find a lot of success in the air based on the CB combo of Morgan Trent and Donovan Warren.

Both new safeties played extensively last year and our nickel back, Boubacar Cissoko, is a five star top rated CB who’s been extensively praised for his coverage and toughness (even if he does get run over by a running back every now and then). If Utah does find success in the air, it will mean trouble for Michigan. But Johnson’s performance to date, combined with the quality of Michigan’s secondary, makes this a ground and trenches type game. And if it’s decided in the trenches, I think Michigan’s stronger up front. But that’s my partisan opinion.

BYU’s Opening Day Opponent is…

If you guessed Northern Iowa from the Gateway Conference then you are correct!! Thanks from Total Blue Sports. This team is from the Football Championship Subdivision (formerly I-AA), and this is a tough game to swallow if you are a BYU season ticket holder because for 3 of the past 4 years BYU has had a FCS team for a certain win.  I know Bronco Mendenhall wants a balanced schedule but with what Nevada did to BYU this is not a shocker that a FCS team was scheduled.  Most reasonable fans of BYU would have like to see at least a top team from the C-USA, MAC, or schedule a mid to low team from the Big XII, Big 10, or Pac-10 so that the game would not be a FCS team but rather a solid team that the Cougars know they would win.  This is also puzzling because Nevada was to help find an opponent for BYU but looks like they did not try hard enough.  The game is set along with the rest of BYU’s non conference schedule with games against @Utah State, UCLA, @ Washington, and now Northern Iowa.

The Panthers were one of the better FCS teams by achieving the number one ranking nationally, going undefeated in regular season before losing in the playoffs to Delaware.  They have also won 4 straight Gateway Conference championships.  With BYU’s finish and the year starting out with Northern Iowa, a mediocre Washington and UCLA team, and then Utah State the Cougs could be looking at a top 15 ranking at least heading into conference play.

Round 1 Central Michigan @ Ohio State

The Chippewas travel to the Horse Shoe in Columbus for the last of the first round playoff matchups. This game should be a similar game to what the Buckeyes are used to when they play non conference teams. The Chippewas do have an offense that potentially could cause problems for Ohio State because they spread the field quite well, but they do not have the athletes to be able to win this game. Ohio State should roll by using their running game in 1,000 yard rusher in Chris Wells and should win this game by a good margin before they challange some more worthy opponents in this years playoff.